After the drama of the Carabao Cup semi-finals in midweek, we move straight to the FA Cup fourth round this weekend. As always, we’re looking for a betting opportunity.
There are seven live games spread between Friday and Sunday. There are also two more matches on Monday and Tuesday, but we’re sticking with the weekend action. The prices we’ve listed are the best available at the time of writing but remember to shop around.
Manchester United v Leicester City: Friday (2000), ITV1
As always in the FA Cup, it’s hard to know how strong a team Premier League clubs will put out. Man United need league points, but they are safe from relegation at least and so are likely to target the FA Cup.
A best-priced 1/3 is ridiculous for them however given their current situation. Leicester are threatened by the drop but showed no mercy to Championship opposition in the last round, hitting QPR for six. They are probably the value shout not to lose the game at Old Trafford.
Bet: Back the draw @ 9/2 and Leicester to win at 15/2.
Leyton Orient v Manchester City: Saturday (1215), BBC1
It’s all about trying to confirm a Champions League place for Pep Guardiola and Man City, while attempting to see off the might of Real Madrid in this year’s competition.
The FA Cup simply cannot be the priority, though Pep will know that winning it lifts a lot of gloom around the club. Odds of 1/12 are crazy, but even at 20/1 we cannot have Leyton Orient in this game.
Bet: Back Man City @ 1/12 (in accumulators only).
Birmingham City v Newcastle United: Saturday (1745), BBC1
Despite a couple of recent home defeats, there appears to be no stopping Newcastle right now. On Wednesday night the completed the job of seeing off Arsenal (4-0 agg) in the EFL Cup semi-final and they’ll be hell bent on getting to a second Wembley final of the season.
With no European football to contend with, there will be no dropping major talent en masse for this game. There’s strong back-up anyway in Eddie Howe’s squad and prices close to 1/2 are very fair against League One opposition.
Bet: Back Newcastle @ 4/9.
Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea: Saturday (2000), ITV4
Chelsea really do have a soft underbelly. Brighton on the other hand have better than average Premier League talent and remain consistent.
An FA Cup evening atmosphere will suit Brighton down to the ground and they are definitely the sort of value we look for.
Bet: Back Brighton @ 15/8.
Blackburn Rovers v Wolverhampton Wanderers: Sunday (1230), BBC (iPlayer & Red Button)
You’ll need to get the smart TV or the laptop out for this one, but it could be worth watching. Blackburn can be decent, but they are not proper Championship promotion material and Wolves are a low-to-average Premier League outfit.
More to the point, they are targeting the cup and can be backed to show the gulf in class between the two leagues, even if they are a shade of odds-on.
Bet: Back Wolves @ 4/6.
Plymouth Argyle v Liverpool: Sunday (1500), ITV1
Liverpool head to Plymouth three days after hosting Tottenham in the Carabao Cup semi-final and three before going to Everton for a rearranged Premier League fixture. They will have to make changes for this game.
You’d still expect them to win, but their best price of 2/11 is based on what they’ve achieved with their full team. Plymouth will of course be fully motivated for this, and so a small and speculative bet on the draw over 90 minutes could be the way to go.
Bet: Back the draw @ 7/1.
Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur: Sunday (1735), BBC1
Tottenham too come into the fourth round of the FA Cup a few days after a semi-final. This is another hard away trip, and it may be one too many.
Spurs are having a tough time, while Villa are still enjoying life and have added some new players to their squad. They are genuine home favourites.
Bet: Back Aston Villa @ 3/4.