We’ve reached the second legs of the Champions League play-off round as the last 16 starts to take shape.
Bayern Munich take on Celtic at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday night in this round, and it’s a good chance for more people to watch with Prime Video taking over for this one. Kick-off is at 8pm.
Bayern won the first leg as expected, but narrowly. Celtic for their part will fancy their chances of an upset, but we doubt very much that will happen.
Celtic registered another simple win over the weekend en route to this game, 3-0 at home to Dundee United, so should be in good shape. Bayern drew 0-0 away from home at Leverkusen but they are a very different proposition in this context.
Bayern to win is restrictive at a best-priced 2/11, 1/9 in a place on Monday, but there’s always a bet to be eked out and we think we’ve found it.
Home Win Expected
Given the narrow lead the home side holds in the tie allied with their style of play, there’ll be no “a draw will do” attitude about Bayern. Not in front of this crowd. They also want to send a message to the other major clubs left in the competition. We can confidently put a Bayern win into any bet.
Shopping around is always recommended, but we’re using Paddy Power’s prices as of Monday as a fair example of what to expect. Bayern are 1/7 to win with them, while there are a host of extra markets to look at as we build a decent bet.
Talent Leads to Goals
With Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise at their disposal to name three, Bayern will do some damage you would feel. This is exemplified by their home results since the turn of the year: 5-0, 3-2, 3-1, 4-3 and 3-0.
Over 2.5 goals for Bayern is just 1/2 however, while over 3.5 comes up at 7/5. There’s not enough evidence to suggest backing either the first half or second half to contain the most goals, so that one’s out. We also take no chances on cards, corners or bookings.
Since January, Bayern are averaging 3.6 goals per game at home against varying levels of opposition. They do concede though, with their home games in total averaging 4.8 goals per game in that time.
Add to that stat the state of play here with Bayern very heavy favourites against a team that likes to, and will, attack and we have a recipe for goals.
The Bet
Over 4.5 goals in the game comes up at 8/5 with Paddy Power which should be standard. Adding a Bayern win to that over 90 minutes brings us to 7/4 and that’s a fair price.
Essentially, we’d be happy with 7/4 for a solid-looking horse in its race, so we should feel the same way about a football bet.
Back Bayern Munich to win and over 4 goals in the match at 7/4.