There are four Premier League matches on Sunday, as well as some other fascinating clashes.
A potentially rejuvenated post-ten Hag Manchester United host Leicester, while Tottenham face Ipswich. The Sheffield Derby also takes place at Bramall Lane while both Celtic and Rangers are in action north of the border.
Two games truly stand out in the Premier League on Sunday however and the challenge is on in terms of how to bet them.
Nottingham Forest v Newcastle United – 2pm
Similar comments will apply to our game below: how do we treat these two teams on a most basic level? What I mean by that is that Newcastle are the “bigger” team who have had more relative success in recent times. They are also fancied to ultimately finish ahead of Nottingham Forest this season.
That will make Newcastle narrow away favourites for this game, but the fact is that Nottingham Forest are third in the Premier League on merit. If 3rd v 10th was, for example, Liverpool v Brentford then we’d be talking about the home side being long odds-on.
Does that alone make Forest the smart bet? Well, not necessarily. We saw a similar scenario last week when Aberdeen faced Celtic in the League Cup semi-final.
Aberdeen went into the game level on points with their opponents in the league. They’d come from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Celtic away before beating Rangers at home. The semi-final result? Celtic 6-0 Aberdeen. League tables don’t always tell the full story.
The Best Players on Show
Nottingham Forest’s top five players on average ratings in the league are Chris Wood, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Elliott Anderson, Ola Aina and Nikola Milenkovic. Two of those were let go by Newcastle, although in Anderson’s case it was rather forced.
For Newcastle, the top five are Anthony Gordon, Lewis Hall, Nick Pope, Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak. You’d have to ask which bunch you’d rather have if you were a manager.
Form
Nottingham Forest have gained 8 points at home. Wins have come against Crystal Palace (1-0) and against ten-man West Ham (3-0). They’ve drawn with Bournemouth and Wolves, lost to Fulham and were beaten on penalties in the League Cup against Newcastle.
Newcastle have 5 points away. They beat Wolves while drawing at Bournemouth and Everton. The loss at Fulham wasn’t great to watch, but they were always in a bad game at Chelsea while we can’t forget that they have beaten the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham this season as well as drawing with Man City.
An away win would bring these two teams level in terms of home points versus away points, and would also leave just a one point gap between them overall. If anything, the 3rd v 10th angle is the dangerous one to rely on.
Chelsea v Arsenal – 4.30pm
Similar comments apply to the above game in as much as Arsenal are the supposed title challengers and so should be favourites. However, they are level on points with their opponents with home advantage going to Chelsea so we cannot treat this game as one Arsenal should win.
Chelsea are back. Well, sort of. Arsenal and Mikel Arteta are under great pressure too. As proven by Man City of late when major players are injured, big squad or not, they are just not the same team and that’s the case with the Gunners too.
Raheem Sterling, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori and Kieran Tierney are apparently ruled out. Declan Rice is now 50-50 while Martin Odegaard is not a certain starter.
Cole Palmer is also being assessed but should start, his potential absence being the only one that would concern me as a bettor.
Players and Form
Cole Palmer is Chelsea’s highest rated player right now. Increasingly in the modern game you cannot kick someone to keep them quiet. Basically, you can’t stop Cole Palmer.
Arsenal have an overrated defence in all truth. At some point in this game, Palmer will cut through them so it’s all about what the visitors can do at the other end.
Bukayo Saka is obviously the main danger, though last week away at Newcastle he and Arsenal didn’t complete a single dribble beyond Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall.
Chelsea have 8 points at home this season to Arsenal’s 7 away. All in all, them being favourites would have been just about right.
The Verdict
Despite league positions, it would seem the bookies have got it right in making Newcastle favourites at Nottingham Forest. Conversely, they have made Arsenal fairly significant favourites at Chelsea which deems daft.
Based purely on value, the win double should be:
- Newcastle and Chelsea to win (approx 6/1)