The acca did not quite go to plan last week, partly because of Harry Kane’s brilliance downing our Huddersfield +1.50 handicap and partly because of Cardiff’s failure to beat Derby at home.
It’s another international break this week – how annoying are those? – so there’s fewer fixtures to work with, but nevertheless there are plenty of opportunities for value here across the lower leagues of English football and the World Cup qualifiers.
So here are this week’s football accumulator betting tips:
- Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon: Oxford to Win (23/20)
- Walsall vs Shrewsbury: Shrewsbury/Draw Double Chance (4/7)
- Cheltenham vs Swindon: Cheltenham to Win (6/5)
- Crewe vs Stevenage: Stevenage/Draw Double Chance (9/20)
- Newport vs Yeovil: Newport to Win (17/20)
- Acca Odds: 18.93/1
Oxford vs AFC Wimbledon: Oxford to Win
After losing three games on the spin, Oxford’s 4-1 win over Peterborough last time out was a welcome and eye-catching return to form.
Pep Clotet’s side have stalled in mid-table following a decent start to the campaign, but they are better than their 13th place suggests and their xG data bears that out – especially at home. If you are the kind of punter that enjoys betting on singles as well as accas, their price looks huge value here.
That’s because Wimbledon simply don’t score goals: five in eleven all season, two in their last six and none in their last three. Whether it’s a lack of firepower or negative tactics on Neal Ardley’s part, the Dons can be opposed with relish.
Walsall vs Shrewsbury: Shrewsbury/Draw Double Chance
Despite them topping League 1, there will be a time when betting against Shrewsbury is wise. Their xG data isn’t mind-blowing, and sooner or later they will get their comeuppance.
It’s just that that time is now against a pretty mediocre Walsall side, who have won just one of their last six. The Saddlers are just one of three teams in League 1 to have conceded 20 or more goals thus far, and so they are ripe to be opposed.
The Shrews….well, watch this space about betting against them. But at the Bescot they should be good enough and confident enough to avoid defeat.
Cheltenham vs Swindon: Cheltenham to Win
We’ve written at length about Cheltenham, a side whose xG data belies their lowly league status. But what’s this: three wins in their last four suggests that the players are catching on to how much better they are than their league position suggests.
They blasted Mansfield 3-0 recently, which is no mean feat, and in our xG league table they sit fourth, which is much higher than their thirteenth place in ‘real life’.
Swindon’s away xG is quite poor really, considering their league position, and while they are generally pretty good on the road they might find this Cheltenham side too hot to handle.
Crewe vs Stevenage: Stevenage/Draw Double Chance
Crewe sit nineteenth in the League 2 table but bottom of the xG charts, and their recent loss of six straight matches – two scored, thirteen conceded – suggests their form is catching up with the raw data.
The Alex are particularly bad at home, surprisingly, and that will please Stevenage no end. They are up to sixth in the table after three straight wins, and it would raise an eyebrow or two if they were to lose against their hapless hosts here.
Newport vs Yeovil: Newport to Win
Newport have only played four times on home soil this term due to maintenance work at Rodney Parade, but they remain unbeaten in front of their own fans with three wins and a draw; and just a solitary goal conceded.
Yeovil, meanwhile, have lost four of their five away games so far, including the 2-8 defeat at Luton and the indignity of handing Forest Green their only win of the campaign in a 3-4 barnburner.
A simple game of deduction suggests Newport, at a tasty price, should win this one.